Birmingham vs Derby
Final Result
1:1
Match ended in a draw
Our Prediction
Missed
53.1%
Birmingham to win
±14.3%
Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham wins |
53.12%
±14.27%
|
1.87 | -0.9% |
| Draw |
27.02%
±4.43%
|
3.45 | -6.8% |
| Derby wins |
19.86%
±10.07%
|
4.20 | -16.6% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Birmingham
Derby
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Birmingham
Derby
Shots
14.3
11.3
Shots On Target
4.4
4.1
Corners
5.3
6.0
Fouls
10.2
11.1
Yellow Cards
1.6
1.8
Red Cards
0.1
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Birmingham
Derby
Shots
10.6
11.4
Shots On Target
3.0
4.8
Corners
3.4
4.0
Fouls
18.0
8.4
Yellow Cards
1.2
0.8
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Birmingham Wins
2Draws
1Derby Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2022 | Draw | 2:2 |
| 10 Sep 2021 | Birmingham Win | 2:0 |
| 24 Apr 2021 | Birmingham Win | 1:2 |
| 29 Dec 2020 | Derby Win | 0:4 |
| 22 Jul 2020 | Derby Win | 1:3 |
Birmingham - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | Sheffield United | 3:0 | L |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Charlton | 1:1 | D |
| 9 Dec 2025 | QPR | 2:1 | L |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Southampton | 3:1 | L |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Watford | 2:1 | W |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | Portsmouth | 1:1 | D |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Sheffield Weds | 0:3 | W |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Millwall | 1:1 | D |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Leicester | 1:3 | L |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Middlesbrough | 2:1 | L |