Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins |
57.79%
±14.18%
|
1.78 | +2.9% |
| Draw |
22.98%
±4.25%
|
3.68 | -15.5% |
| Derby wins Top Bet |
19.23%
±10.11%
|
4.27 | -18.0% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Burnley
Derby
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Burnley
Derby
Shots
13.7
12.2
Shots On Target
4.2
3.6
Corners
4.7
6.3
Fouls
12.0
12.9
Yellow Cards
2.1
2.6
Red Cards
0.1
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Burnley
Derby
Shots
11.0
7.5
Shots On Target
3.0
1.0
Hit On Woodwork
0.0
0.0
Corners
5.0
5.0
Fouls
8.0
14.5
Free Kicks Conceded
0.0
0.0
Offsides
0.0
0.0
Yellow Cards
0.5
1.5
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Burnley Wins
0Draws
2Derby Wins
0| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Apr 2025 | Draw | 0:0 |
| 10 Dec 2024 | Draw | 0:0 |
Burnley - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Swansea | 3:1 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Wrexham | 1:1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bristol City | 1:2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough | 1:1 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Norwich | 4:1 | L |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham | 1:2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City | - | - |
| 9 Sep 2026 | West Brom | 0:1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Ham | 3:0 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth | 0:2 | W |