Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar
Final Result
1:2
AZ Alkmaar to win
Our Prediction
Correct
51.3%
AZ Alkmaar to win
±13.6%
Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior wins |
21.29%
±11.08%
|
3.40 | -27.6% |
| Draw |
27.38%
±2.93%
|
3.75 | +2.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar wins |
51.33%
±13.61%
|
1.99 | +2.1% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Shots
10.0
13.8
Shots On Target
3.6
5.0
Corners
3.5
5.1
Fouls
12.1
10.6
Yellow Cards
1.7
1.7
Red Cards
0.1
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Shots
7.6
15.6
Shots On Target
2.0
7.4
Corners
2.2
6.6
Fouls
9.6
8.4
Yellow Cards
1.4
1.4
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Excelsior Wins
1Draws
2AZ Alkmaar Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | Draw | 1:1 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | AZ Alkmaar Win | 4:0 |
| 4 Nov 2023 | Draw | 1:1 |
| 10 Feb 2023 | AZ Alkmaar Win | 5:0 |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Excelsior Win | 2:1 |
Excelsior - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | NAC Breda | 0:2 | W |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Ajax | 2:2 | D |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Twente | 0:0 | D |
| 21 Jan 2026 | AZ Alkmaar | 1:1 | D |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 2:2 | D |
AZ Alkmaar - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Ajax | 1:1 | D |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Nijmegen | 1:3 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 0:1 | W |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Excelsior | 1:1 | D |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Zwolle | 3:1 | L |