Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford wins |
42.54%
±14.51%
|
2.15 | -8.5% |
| Draw |
29.57%
±2.89%
|
3.30 | -2.4% |
| Derby wins |
27.89%
±12.08%
|
3.33 | -7.3% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Watford
Derby
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Watford
Derby
Shots
13.6
10.9
Shots On Target
3.6
3.5
Corners
5.9
4.2
Fouls
7.7
13.0
Yellow Cards
1.7
1.9
Red Cards
0.1
0.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Watford
Derby
Shots
11.4
9.0
Shots On Target
3.4
1.8
Corners
4.2
5.6
Fouls
11.6
9.8
Yellow Cards
1.8
1.8
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Watford Wins
5Draws
0Derby Wins
0| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | Watford Win | 2:3 |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Watford Win | 0:2 |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Watford Win | 2:1 |
| 19 Feb 2021 | Watford Win | 2:1 |
| 16 Oct 2020 | Watford Win | 0:1 |
Watford - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Preston | 2:2 | D |
| 7 Feb 2026 | Southampton | 1:0 | L |
| 3 Feb 2026 | Hull | 0:0 | D |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Swansea | 0:2 | L |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Blackburn | 1:1 | D |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Swansea | 2:0 | W |
| 7 Feb 2026 | Ipswich | 1:2 | L |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Bristol City | 0:5 | W |
| 23 Jan 2026 | West Brom | 1:1 | D |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Charlton | 1:2 | W |