Derby vs Middlesbrough
Final Result
1:0
Derby to win
Our Prediction
Missed
41.6%
Middlesbrough to win
±13.5%
Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby wins |
28.05%
±12.65%
|
3.03 | -15.1% |
| Draw |
30.4%
±1.81%
|
3.25 | -1.2% |
| Middlesbrough wins |
41.55%
±13.49%
|
2.33 | -3.4% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Derby
Middlesbrough
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Derby
Middlesbrough
Shots
10.6
16.1
Shots On Target
3.7
4.2
Corners
5.5
7.4
Fouls
11.2
9.8
Yellow Cards
1.9
1.1
Red Cards
0.1
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Derby
Middlesbrough
Shots
7.0
14.5
Shots On Target
2.4
5.1
Corners
4.8
5.1
Fouls
14.0
10.2
Yellow Cards
2.4
1.4
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Derby Wins
2Draws
2Middlesbrough Wins
4| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2025 | Middlesbrough Win | 2:1 |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Middlesbrough Win | 1:0 |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Derby Win | 1:0 |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Middlesbrough Win | 4:1 |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Draw | 0:0 |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | Leicester | 2:1 | L |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Birmingham | 1:1 | D |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Portsmouth | 1:1 | D |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Sheffield Weds | 0:3 | W |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Millwall | 1:1 | D |
Middlesbrough - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | Hull | 0:1 | L |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Blackburn | 0:0 | D |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Bristol City | 2:0 | L |
| 13 Dec 2025 | QPR | 3:1 | W |
| 9 Dec 2025 | Charlton | 1:2 | W |