Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto wins |
29.71%
±14.14%
|
2.25 | -33.1% |
| Draw |
29.94%
±1.91%
|
3.05 | -8.7% |
| Sp Lisbon wins |
40.35%
±14.63%
|
3.30 | +33.2% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Porto
Sp Lisbon
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Porto
Sp Lisbon
Shots
14.3
16.9
Shots On Target
5.4
6.7
Corners
5.4
6.9
Fouls
13.4
13.2
Yellow Cards
1.7
2.5
Red Cards
0.1
0.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Porto
Sp Lisbon
Shots
11.6
10.7
Shots On Target
3.8
3.8
Corners
3.9
3.6
Fouls
16.7
13.8
Yellow Cards
3.2
3.7
Red Cards
0.4
0.7
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Porto Wins
3Draws
5Sp Lisbon Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Porto Win | 1:2 |
| 7 Feb 2025 | Draw | 1:1 |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Sp Lisbon Win | 2:0 |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Draw | 2:2 |
| 18 Dec 2023 | Sp Lisbon Win | 2:0 |
Porto - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Casa Pia | 2:1 | L |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | 3:0 | W |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Guimaraes | 0:1 | W |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Santa Clara | 0:1 | W |
| 29 Dec 2025 | AVS | 2:0 | W |
Sp Lisbon - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Nacional | 2:1 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Arouca | 1:2 | W |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Casa Pia | 3:0 | W |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | 1:1 | D |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Rio Ave | 4:0 | W |