Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela wins |
53.87%
±14.46%
|
1.77 | -4.7% |
| Draw |
26%
±4.37%
|
3.36 | -12.5% |
| Casa Pia wins |
20.13%
±10.32%
|
4.04 | -18.7% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Estrela
Casa Pia
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Estrela
Casa Pia
Shots
11.3
10.8
Shots On Target
3.9
2.9
Corners
3.8
4.6
Fouls
11.1
12.7
Yellow Cards
2.7
2.1
Red Cards
0.1
0.2
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Estrela
Casa Pia
Shots
14.5
10.2
Shots On Target
5.5
3.5
Corners
4.3
4.2
Fouls
14.7
17.3
Yellow Cards
2.0
2.0
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Estrela Wins
4Draws
0Casa Pia Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | Estrela Win | 4:0 |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Estrela Win | 3:5 |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Casa Pia Win | 1:0 |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Casa Pia Win | 0:1 |
| 8 Mar 2024 | Estrela Win | 3:1 |
Estrela - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Arouca | 1:0 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Academico Viseu | 0:2 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Rio Ave | 3:3 | D |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Sp Braga | 2:1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Famalicao | 2:2 | D |
Casa Pia - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Santa Clara | 0:1 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Santa Clara | 0:1 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Estoril | 1:2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Porto | 1:4 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Guimaraes | 0:0 | D |