Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional wins |
47.78%
±15.23%
|
2.10 | +0.3% |
| Draw |
27.42%
±3.62%
|
3.18 | -12.9% |
| Casa Pia wins |
24.8%
±11.96%
|
3.58 | -11.3% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Nacional
Casa Pia
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Nacional
Casa Pia
Shots
12.7
7.3
Shots On Target
4.1
2.7
Corners
3.0
3.4
Fouls
14.9
15.1
Yellow Cards
2.9
2.9
Red Cards
0.1
0.2
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Nacional
Casa Pia
Shots
14.0
11.0
Shots On Target
4.7
3.7
Corners
4.0
4.7
Fouls
15.0
14.3
Yellow Cards
2.7
2.0
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Nacional Wins
2Draws
0Casa Pia Wins
1| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Nacional Win | 0:2 |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Nacional Win | 3:1 |
| 25 Oct 2024 | Casa Pia Win | 1:0 |
Nacional - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Sp Lisbon | 2:1 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | 4:0 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | 2:1 | L |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Santa Clara | 3:3 | D |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Guimaraes | 2:1 | L |
Casa Pia - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Porto | 2:1 | W |
| 23 Jan 2026 | AVS | 3:3 | D |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Sp Lisbon | 3:0 | L |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | 3:1 | L |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Guimaraes | 0:0 | D |