Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon wins |
83%
±5%
|
1.13 | -6.5% |
| Draw |
12%
±3%
|
8.25 | +1.2% |
| Nacional wins |
5%
±2%
|
16.75 | -22.1% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Sp Lisbon
Nacional
Season Statistics
Average per-game stats from prior matches this season.
Stat
Sp Lisbon
Nacional
Shots
17.7
12.6
Shots On Target
6.8
4.2
Corners
6.9
4.4
Fouls
12.2
14.9
Yellow Cards
2.2
3.0
Red Cards
0.1
0.2
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Sp Lisbon
Nacional
Shots
21.0
5.2
Shots On Target
7.0
2.0
Corners
7.8
2.8
Fouls
9.8
16.6
Yellow Cards
1.4
2.6
Red Cards
0.0
0.4
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Sp Lisbon Wins
5Draws
0Nacional Wins
0| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Sp Lisbon Win | 1:4 | Primeira Liga |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Sp Lisbon Win | 2:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Sp Lisbon Win | 1:6 | Primeira Liga |
| 1 May 2021 | Sp Lisbon Win | 2:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 8 Jan 2021 | Sp Lisbon Win | 0:2 | Primeira Liga |
Sp Lisbon - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Arouca | 1:2 | W |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Casa Pia | 3:0 | W |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | 1:1 | D |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Rio Ave | 4:0 | W |
| 23 Dec 2025 | Guimaraes | 1:4 | W |
Nacional - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | 4:0 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | 2:1 | L |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Santa Clara | 3:3 | D |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Guimaraes | 2:1 | L |
| 21 Dec 2025 | AVS | 2:2 | D |