Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar
Final Result
1:2
AZ Alkmaar to win
Our Prediction
Correct
55%
AZ Alkmaar to win
±11%
Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar wins |
55%
±11%
|
1.99 | +8.8% |
| Excelsior wins |
21%
±8%
|
3.40 | -29.8% |
| Draw |
25%
±2%
|
3.75 | -7.5% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Season Statistics
Average per-game stats from prior matches this season.
Stat
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Shots
12.4
15.7
Shots On Target
4.2
5.9
Corners
4.1
5.9
Fouls
12.3
10.2
Yellow Cards
1.2
1.8
Red Cards
0.1
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Shots
7.6
15.6
Shots On Target
2.0
7.4
Corners
2.2
6.6
Fouls
9.6
8.4
Yellow Cards
1.4
1.4
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Excelsior Wins
1Draws
2AZ Alkmaar Wins
2| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | Draw | 1:1 | Eredivisie |
| 10 Mar 2024 | AZ Alkmaar Win | 4:0 | Eredivisie |
| 4 Nov 2023 | Draw | 1:1 | Eredivisie |
| 10 Feb 2023 | AZ Alkmaar Win | 5:0 | Eredivisie |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Excelsior Win | 2:1 | Eredivisie |
Excelsior - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | NAC Breda | 0:2 | W |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Ajax | 2:2 | D |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Twente | 0:0 | D |
| 21 Jan 2026 | AZ Alkmaar | 1:1 | D |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 2:2 | D |
AZ Alkmaar - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Ajax | 1:1 | D |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Nijmegen | 1:3 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 0:1 | W |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Excelsior | 1:1 | D |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Zwolle | 3:1 | L |