Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico wins |
61%
±26%
|
2.29 | +39.5% |
| Draw |
21%
±7%
|
2.69 | -42.6% |
| Ecuador wins |
18%
±18%
|
3.90 | -31.3% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Mexico
Ecuador
Head-to-Head History
Mexico Wins
3Draws
4Ecuador Wins
3| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2025 | Draw | 1:1 | World Cup |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Draw | 0:0 | World Cup |
| 6 Jun 2022 | Draw | 0:0 | World Cup |
| 28 Oct 2021 | Ecuador Win | 2:3 | World Cup |
| 10 Jun 2019 | Mexico Win | 3:2 | World Cup |
Mexico - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Czechia | 0:3 | W |
| 19 Jun 2026 | South Korea | 1:0 | W |
| 11 Jun 2026 | South Africa | 2:0 | W |
| 1 Apr 2026 | Belgium | 1:1 | D |
| 29 Mar 2026 | Portugal | 0:0 | D |
Ecuador - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Germany | 2:1 | W |
| 21 Jun 2026 | Curaçao | 0:0 | D |
| 14 Jun 2026 | Ivory Coast | 1:0 | L |
| 31 Mar 2026 | Netherlands | 1:1 | D |
| 27 Mar 2026 | Morocco | 1:1 | D |