Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon wins Top Bet |
78%
±7%
|
1.19 | -7.3% |
| Draw |
15%
±4%
|
6.63 | -2.1% |
| Nacional wins |
7%
±4%
|
12.13 | -13.4% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Sp Lisbon
Nacional
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Sp Lisbon
Nacional
Shots
20.2
5.3
Shots On Target
7.0
2.3
Corners
8.3
2.3
Fouls
10.2
16.3
Yellow Cards
1.2
2.7
Red Cards
0.0
0.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Sp Lisbon Wins
6Draws
0Nacional Wins
0| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Sp Lisbon Win | 2:1 | Primeira Liga |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Sp Lisbon Win | 1:4 | Primeira Liga |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Sp Lisbon Win | 2:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Sp Lisbon Win | 1:6 | Primeira Liga |
| 1 May 2021 | Sp Lisbon Win | 2:0 | Primeira Liga |
Sp Lisbon - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Alverca | - | - |
| 8 Aug 2026 | Estrela | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Gil Vicente | 3:0 | W |
| 11 May 2026 | Rio Ave | 1:4 | W |
| 4 May 2026 | Guimaraes | 5:1 | W |
Nacional - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2026 | Estrela | - | - |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Guimaraes | - | - |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Estoril | - | - |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Santa Clara | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Guimaraes | 2:0 | W |