Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon wins |
81%
±6%
|
1.21 | -1.8% |
| Draw |
13%
±3%
|
6.63 | -12.5% |
| Arouca wins |
5%
±3%
|
11.50 | -39.2% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Sp Lisbon
Arouca
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Sp Lisbon
Arouca
Shots
16.8
8.9
Shots On Target
6.5
3.6
Corners
6.3
2.9
Fouls
9.5
13.4
Yellow Cards
2.2
3.0
Red Cards
0.3
0.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Sp Lisbon Wins
7Draws
2Arouca Wins
1| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Sp Lisbon Win | 1:2 | Primeira Liga |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Sp Lisbon Win | 6:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Draw | 2:2 | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Sep 2024 | Sp Lisbon Win | 0:3 | Primeira Liga |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Sp Lisbon Win | 0:3 | Primeira Liga |
Sp Lisbon - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Famalicao | - | - |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Nacional | - | - |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Alverca | - | - |
| 8 Aug 2026 | Estrela | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Gil Vicente | 3:0 | W |
Arouca - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Santa Clara | - | - |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Estoril | - | - |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Maritimo | - | - |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Porto | - | - |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Moreirense | - | - |