Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby wins Top Bet |
49%
±13%
|
2.23 | +9.3% |
| Draw |
26%
±3%
|
3.28 | -13.7% |
| Swansea wins |
25%
±10%
|
3.15 | -22.7% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Derby
Swansea
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Derby
Swansea
Shots
10.7
8.8
Shots On Target
4.6
2.6
Corners
3.4
3.4
Fouls
15.0
10.6
Yellow Cards
2.0
1.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Derby Wins
4Draws
1Swansea Wins
4| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Derby Win | 2:0 | English Championship |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Derby Win | 1:2 | English Championship |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Swansea Win | 1:0 | English Championship |
| 27 Nov 2024 | Swansea Win | 1:2 | English Championship |
| 9 Apr 2022 | Swansea Win | 2:1 | English Championship |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Cardiff | - | - |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Charlton | - | - |
| 2 May 2026 | Sheffield United | 1:2 | L |
| 25 Apr 2026 | QPR | 2:3 | W |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Norwich | 2:1 | L |
Swansea - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | Sheffield United | - | - |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Stoke | - | - |
| 2 May 2026 | Charlton | 3:1 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Norwich | 1:1 | D |
| 21 Apr 2026 | QPR | 1:2 | W |