Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz wins |
41%
±10%
|
2.39 | -1.4% |
| Hamburg wins |
30%
±9%
|
2.79 | -16.6% |
| Draw |
29%
±1%
|
3.54 | +2.1% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Hamburg
Mainz
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Hamburg
Mainz
Shots
14.5
14.0
Shots On Target
7.0
3.5
Corners
1.5
5.5
Fouls
13.5
14.5
Yellow Cards
2.0
3.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Hamburg Wins
1Draws
1Mainz Wins
0| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | Draw | 1:1 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Hamburg Win | 4:0 | Bundesliga |
Hamburg - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | Dortmund | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Leverkusen | 1:1 | D |
| 10 May 2026 | Freiburg | 3:2 | W |
| 2 May 2026 | Ein Frankfurt | 1:2 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hoffenheim | 1:2 | L |
Mainz - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | Paderborn | - | - |
| 29 Aug 2026 | SC Paderborn | 0:0 | D |
| 16 May 2026 | Heidenheim | 0:2 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | Union Berlin | 1:3 | L |
| 3 May 2026 | St Pauli | 1:2 | W |