Derby vs Birmingham
Final Result
1:2
Birmingham to win
Our Prediction
Correct
38.8%
Birmingham to win
±13.7%
Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby wins Top Bet |
32.38%
±13.63%
|
3.40 | +10.1% |
| Draw |
28.87%
±1.55%
|
3.28 | -5.5% |
| Birmingham wins |
38.75%
±13.65%
|
2.15 | -16.7% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Derby
Birmingham
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Derby
Birmingham
Shots
11.4
12.5
Shots On Target
4.0
4.1
Corners
5.7
6.3
Fouls
13.9
12.4
Yellow Cards
2.8
2.0
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Derby
Birmingham
Shots
11.3
11.6
Shots On Target
4.4
3.4
Corners
3.9
4.4
Fouls
9.6
17.6
Yellow Cards
0.9
1.9
Red Cards
0.1
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Derby Wins
3Draws
2Birmingham Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Derby Win | 1:0 |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Draw | 1:1 |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Draw | 2:2 |
| 10 Sep 2021 | Birmingham Win | 2:0 |
| 24 Apr 2021 | Birmingham Win | 1:2 |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City | - | - |
| 9 Sep 2026 | West Brom | 0:1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Ham | 3:0 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth | 0:2 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Swansea | 0:3 | L |
Birmingham - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | Norwich | 2:1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Wolves | 2:2 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Southampton | 1:1 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Wrexham | 1:2 | W |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Bristol City | 2:2 | D |