Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby wins |
38.07%
±14.24%
|
2.15 | -18.1% |
| Draw |
30.13%
±2.19%
|
3.20 | -3.6% |
| Swansea wins |
31.8%
±12.76%
|
3.35 | +6.5% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Derby
Swansea
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Derby
Swansea
Shots
11.0
15.4
Shots On Target
3.5
4.7
Corners
4.2
5.3
Fouls
11.7
9.3
Yellow Cards
1.8
1.8
Red Cards
0.3
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Derby
Swansea
Shots
10.6
8.0
Shots On Target
4.4
2.6
Hit On Woodwork
0.0
0.0
Corners
3.1
3.6
Fouls
14.4
10.4
Free Kicks Conceded
0.0
0.0
Offsides
0.0
0.0
Yellow Cards
2.0
0.9
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Derby Wins
3Draws
1Swansea Wins
4| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | Derby Win | 1:2 |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Swansea Win | 1:0 |
| 27 Nov 2024 | Swansea Win | 1:2 |
| 9 Apr 2022 | Swansea Win | 2:1 |
| 2 Oct 2021 | Draw | 0:0 |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Ipswich | 1:2 | L |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Bristol City | 0:5 | W |
| 23 Jan 2026 | West Brom | 1:1 | D |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Charlton | 1:2 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Preston | 0:1 | W |
Swansea - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Sheffield Weds | 4:0 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Watford | 0:2 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Hull | 2:1 | L |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Blackburn | 3:1 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Birmingham | 1:1 | D |