Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby wins |
34.63%
±13.9%
|
2.53 | -12.6% |
| Draw |
30.13%
±1.74%
|
3.20 | -3.6% |
| Watford wins |
35.24%
±13.22%
|
2.79 | -1.8% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Derby
Watford
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Derby
Watford
Shots
9.2
14.5
Shots On Target
3.2
5.8
Corners
4.9
4.8
Fouls
12.1
10.4
Yellow Cards
2.3
1.8
Red Cards
0.0
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Derby
Watford
Shots
9.0
10.8
Shots On Target
1.8
3.2
Corners
4.8
4.5
Fouls
10.2
10.8
Yellow Cards
1.8
2.0
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Derby Wins
0Draws
0Watford Wins
4| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2025 | Watford Win | 0:2 |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Watford Win | 2:1 |
| 19 Feb 2021 | Watford Win | 2:1 |
| 16 Oct 2020 | Watford Win | 0:1 |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2025 | Blackburn | 1:2 | W |
| 4 Nov 2025 | Hull | 2:1 | W |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Sheffield United | 1:3 | W |
| 25 Oct 2025 | QPR | 1:0 | W |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Norwich | 1:0 | W |
Watford - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2025 | Bristol City | 1:1 | D |
| 4 Nov 2025 | Ipswich | 1:1 | D |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Middlesbrough | 3:0 | W |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Coventry | 3:1 | L |
| 22 Oct 2025 | West Brom | 2:1 | W |