Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund wins |
63.63%
±13.13%
|
1.55 | -1.4% |
| Draw |
23.27%
±5.48%
|
4.45 | +3.5% |
| Mainz wins |
13.1%
±7.78%
|
5.38 | -29.6% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Dortmund
Mainz
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Dortmund
Mainz
Shots
13.3
10.1
Shots On Target
5.0
4.4
Corners
5.1
5.4
Fouls
10.7
9.9
Yellow Cards
2.0
2.2
Red Cards
0.1
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Dortmund
Mainz
Shots
13.7
10.0
Shots On Target
5.3
4.2
Corners
3.6
3.8
Fouls
9.1
14.4
Yellow Cards
1.2
2.3
Red Cards
0.1
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Dortmund Wins
6Draws
2Mainz Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | Dortmund Win | 0:2 |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Dortmund Win | 3:1 |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Mainz Win | 3:1 |
| 11 May 2024 | Mainz Win | 3:0 |
| 19 Dec 2023 | Draw | 1:1 |
Dortmund - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Wolfsburg | 1:2 | W |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Heidenheim | 3:2 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Union Berlin | 0:3 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | St Pauli | 3:2 | W |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Werder Bremen | 3:0 | W |
Mainz - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Augsburg | 2:0 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | RB Leipzig | 1:2 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Wolfsburg | 3:1 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | FC Koln | 2:1 | L |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Heidenheim | 2:1 | W |