Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela wins |
42.41%
±15.05%
|
2.15 | -8.8% |
| Draw |
28.53%
±2.77%
|
3.20 | -8.7% |
| Arouca wins |
29.06%
±12.79%
|
3.35 | -2.6% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Estrela
Arouca
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Estrela
Arouca
Shots
11.3
9.0
Shots On Target
3.6
2.8
Corners
3.3
3.5
Fouls
13.9
15.4
Yellow Cards
2.6
3.1
Red Cards
0.2
0.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Estrela
Arouca
Shots
7.7
16.3
Shots On Target
2.0
3.3
Corners
2.7
6.0
Fouls
9.3
14.7
Yellow Cards
2.7
1.7
Red Cards
0.3
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Estrela Wins
1Draws
1Arouca Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | Arouca Win | 1:0 |
| 9 Dec 2024 | Estrela Win | 2:1 |
| 5 May 2024 | Draw | 0:0 |
| 28 Dec 2023 | Arouca Win | 1:4 |
Estrela - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2025 | Sp Lisbon | 4:0 | L |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Nacional | 1:1 | D |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Casa Pia | 3:5 | W |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Rio Ave | 1:2 | L |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Gil Vicente | 2:0 | L |
Arouca - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dec 2025 | Sp Braga | 0:4 | L |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Estoril | 4:3 | L |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Moreirense | 0:2 | L |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Benfica | 5:0 | L |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Famalicao | 1:1 | D |