Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea wins |
44.89%
±14.63%
|
2.15 | -3.5% |
| Draw |
28.85%
±3.21%
|
3.08 | -11.3% |
| Derby wins |
26.26%
±11.8%
|
3.55 | -6.8% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Swansea
Derby
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Swansea
Derby
Shots
11.4
9.4
Shots On Target
3.5
3.2
Corners
4.7
5.5
Fouls
9.8
11.9
Yellow Cards
1.9
2.3
Red Cards
0.1
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Swansea
Derby
Shots
7.9
10.3
Shots On Target
2.4
4.3
Hit On Woodwork
0.0
0.0
Corners
3.6
3.3
Fouls
10.4
13.6
Free Kicks Conceded
0.0
0.0
Offsides
0.0
0.0
Yellow Cards
1.0
2.0
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Swansea Wins
4Draws
1Derby Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2025 | Swansea Win | 1:0 |
| 27 Nov 2024 | Swansea Win | 1:2 |
| 9 Apr 2022 | Swansea Win | 2:1 |
| 2 Oct 2021 | Draw | 0:0 |
| 1 May 2021 | Swansea Win | 2:1 |
Swansea - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | Bristol City | 3:0 | L |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Ipswich | 1:4 | L |
| 5 Nov 2025 | Preston | 2:1 | L |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Charlton | 1:1 | D |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Norwich | 2:1 | W |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | Watford | 2:3 | L |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Blackburn | 1:2 | W |
| 4 Nov 2025 | Hull | 2:1 | W |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Sheffield United | 1:3 | W |
| 25 Oct 2025 | QPR | 1:0 | W |