Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz wins |
43.49%
±14.87%
|
1.95 | -15.2% |
| Draw |
29.28%
±3.09%
|
3.35 | -1.9% |
| St Pauli wins |
27.22%
±12.23%
|
4.05 | +10.2% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Mainz
St Pauli
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Mainz
St Pauli
Shots
8.8
10.3
Shots On Target
2.5
2.8
Corners
4.0
5.5
Fouls
13.5
9.1
Yellow Cards
2.7
1.7
Red Cards
0.3
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Mainz
St Pauli
Shots
9.0
14.5
Shots On Target
4.5
2.0
Corners
4.0
3.5
Fouls
12.5
11.0
Yellow Cards
3.0
1.5
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Mainz Wins
2Draws
0St Pauli Wins
0| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2025 | Mainz Win | 2:0 |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Mainz Win | 0:3 |
Mainz - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2025 | Bayern Munich | 2:2 | D |
| 5 Dec 2025 | M'gladbach | 0:1 | L |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Freiburg | 4:0 | L |
| 21 Nov 2025 | Hoffenheim | 1:1 | D |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Ein Frankfurt | 1:0 | L |
St Pauli - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | Heidenheim | 2:1 | W |
| 6 Dec 2025 | FC Koln | 1:1 | D |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Bayern Munich | 3:1 | L |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Union Berlin | 0:1 | L |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Freiburg | 2:1 | L |