Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby wins Top Bet |
42.08%
±14.68%
|
2.53 | +6.4% |
| Draw |
27.06%
±2.37%
|
3.35 | -9.5% |
| Stoke wins |
30.86%
±12.83%
|
2.63 | -18.7% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Derby
Stoke
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Derby
Stoke
Shots
12.0
11.9
Shots On Target
3.9
3.9
Corners
5.7
4.4
Fouls
12.3
14.1
Yellow Cards
2.3
2.4
Red Cards
0.0
0.2
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Derby
Stoke
Shots
10.4
8.7
Shots On Target
3.4
2.6
Hit On Woodwork
0.0
0.0
Corners
4.4
5.0
Fouls
13.7
11.4
Free Kicks Conceded
0.0
0.0
Offsides
0.0
0.0
Yellow Cards
2.0
1.7
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Derby Wins
4Draws
2Stoke Wins
3| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Derby Win | 2:0 |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Stoke Win | 3:1 |
| 3 May 2025 | Draw | 0:0 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Stoke Win | 2:1 |
| 30 Dec 2021 | Derby Win | 1:2 |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | QPR | 4:1 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Wrexham | 1:1 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Burnley | 1:1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham | 1:2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City | - | - |
Stoke - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Middlesbrough | 2:3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Bolton | 1:2 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United | 2:1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Watford | 1:2 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Cardiff | 1:1 | D |