Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby wins |
24.85%
±12.19%
|
1.96 | -51.4% |
| Draw |
27.7%
±2.3%
|
3.45 | -4.4% |
| Cardiff wins Top Bet |
47.45%
±13.91%
|
3.73 | +76.8% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Derby
Cardiff
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Derby
Cardiff
Shots
13.4
19.4
Shots On Target
4.3
5.8
Corners
4.5
8.5
Fouls
14.0
9.7
Yellow Cards
3.0
1.8
Red Cards
0.0
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Derby
Cardiff
Shots
11.0
11.3
Shots On Target
3.1
5.4
Corners
6.0
3.9
Fouls
9.7
9.7
Yellow Cards
1.6
1.9
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Derby Wins
1Draws
1Cardiff Wins
5| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2025 | Cardiff Win | 2:1 |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Derby Win | 1:0 |
| 7 May 2022 | Cardiff Win | 0:1 |
| 1 Mar 2022 | Cardiff Win | 1:0 |
| 2 Mar 2021 | Cardiff Win | 4:0 |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | Charlton | 2:1 | L |
| 2 May 2026 | Sheffield United | 1:2 | L |
| 25 Apr 2026 | QPR | 2:3 | W |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Norwich | 2:1 | L |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Oxford | 1:0 | W |
Cardiff - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2026 | Wrexham | 1:1 | D |
| 2 May 2026 | Mansfield | 5:4 | L |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Northampton | 5:1 | W |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Port Vale | 1:0 | W |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Reading | 1:3 | W |