Middlesbrough vs Derby
Final Result
2:1
Middlesbrough to win
Our Prediction
Correct
54.2%
Middlesbrough to win
±14.1%
Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough wins |
54.18%
±14.15%
|
1.74 | -5.7% |
| Draw |
26.46%
±4.47%
|
3.60 | -4.7% |
| Derby wins |
19.36%
±9.89%
|
4.88 | -5.6% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Middlesbrough
Derby
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Middlesbrough
Derby
Shots
14.1
10.2
Shots On Target
3.8
3.4
Corners
5.9
5.4
Fouls
9.3
12.3
Yellow Cards
1.2
2.0
Red Cards
0.1
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Middlesbrough
Derby
Shots
13.6
7.1
Shots On Target
5.3
2.6
Corners
4.6
4.3
Fouls
10.4
14.1
Yellow Cards
1.6
2.4
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Middlesbrough Wins
3Draws
2Derby Wins
2| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2025 | Middlesbrough Win | 1:0 |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Derby Win | 1:0 |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Middlesbrough Win | 4:1 |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Draw | 0:0 |
| 13 Feb 2021 | Derby Win | 2:1 |
Middlesbrough - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | Coventry | 2:4 | L |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Oxford | 1:1 | D |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Birmingham | 2:1 | W |
| 4 Nov 2025 | Leicester | 1:1 | D |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Watford | 3:0 | L |
Derby - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | Swansea | 1:2 | W |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Watford | 2:3 | L |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Blackburn | 1:2 | W |
| 4 Nov 2025 | Hull | 2:1 | W |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Sheffield United | 1:3 | W |