Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca wins |
40.83%
±14.73%
|
2.28 | -7.1% |
| Draw |
28.66%
±2.47%
|
3.35 | -4.0% |
| Nacional wins |
30.51%
±12.85%
|
2.95 | -10.0% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Arouca
Nacional
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Arouca
Nacional
Shots
12.0
13.4
Shots On Target
4.2
4.1
Corners
4.4
3.9
Fouls
12.8
15.2
Yellow Cards
2.7
2.7
Red Cards
0.3
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Arouca
Nacional
Shots
10.3
15.0
Shots On Target
4.3
3.7
Corners
5.7
2.7
Fouls
18.3
12.0
Yellow Cards
1.7
4.3
Red Cards
0.7
0.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Arouca Wins
3Draws
0Nacional Wins
0| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | Arouca Win | 1:2 |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Arouca Win | 1:2 |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Arouca Win | 1:0 |
Arouca - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Casa Pia | 3:2 | L |
| 7 Feb 2026 | Guimaraes | 3:2 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | 0:3 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Sp Lisbon | 1:2 | L |
| 17 Jan 2026 | AVS | 0:1 | W |
Nacional - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Porto | 0:1 | L |
| 8 Feb 2026 | Casa Pia | 0:0 | D |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Sp Lisbon | 2:1 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | 4:0 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | 2:1 | L |