Eredivisie 21 Jan 2026 12:45 Match Finished

AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior

Our Prediction Missed
71% AZ Alkmaar to win

±9%

Outcome Probabilities

Outcome Probability Odds EV
AZ Alkmaar wins
71% ±9%
1.31 -7.8%
Draw
18% ±4%
6.00 +11.0%
Excelsior wins
11% ±5%
8.38 -9.4%

Model Rating

AI model rating per team before kickoff

AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior

Season Statistics

Average per-game stats from prior matches this season.

Stat
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Shots 15.7 12.4
Shots On Target 5.9 4.2
Corners 5.9 4.1
Fouls 10.2 12.3
Yellow Cards 1.8 1.2
Red Cards 0.0 0.1

Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Average per-match stats from recent meetings.

Stat
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Shots 16.2 7.5
Shots On Target 8.2 2.0
Corners 7.2 1.5
Fouls 8.5 9.5
Yellow Cards 1.0 1.5

Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.

Head-to-Head History

AZ Alkmaar Wins

2

Draws

1

Excelsior Wins

1
Date Result Score Competition
10 Mar 2024 AZ Alkmaar Win 4:0 Eredivisie
4 Nov 2023 Draw 1:1 Eredivisie
10 Feb 2023 AZ Alkmaar Win 5:0 Eredivisie
23 Oct 2022 Excelsior Win 2:1 Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar - Recent Form

Date Opponent Score Result
17 Jan 2026 Zwolle 3:1 L
10 Jan 2026 Volendam 1:0 W
21 Dec 2025 For Sittard 4:3 L
7 Dec 2025 Go Ahead Eagles 2:2 D
30 Nov 2025 Twente 1:0 L

Excelsior - Recent Form

Date Opponent Score Result
17 Jan 2026 Telstar 2:2 D
10 Jan 2026 PSV Eindhoven 5:1 L
20 Dec 2025 Zwolle 2:1 W
5 Dec 2025 Groningen 0:2 L
29 Nov 2025 NAC Breda 1:0 W