Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia wins |
41%
±11%
|
2.65 | +8.1% |
| Draw |
29%
±2%
|
3.20 | -8.0% |
| Arouca wins |
30%
±10%
|
2.60 | -20.8% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Casa Pia
Arouca
Season Statistics
Average per-game stats from prior matches this season.
Stat
Casa Pia
Arouca
Shots
8.9
10.7
Shots On Target
2.9
3.6
Corners
4.0
3.7
Fouls
16.1
13.8
Yellow Cards
2.8
2.9
Red Cards
0.1
0.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Casa Pia
Arouca
Shots
9.7
9.8
Shots On Target
3.0
3.3
Corners
6.3
3.7
Fouls
11.2
12.5
Yellow Cards
3.0
1.8
Red Cards
0.2
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Casa Pia Wins
4Draws
2Arouca Wins
1| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 2025 | Casa Pia Win | 0:2 | Primeira Liga |
| 4 May 2025 | Draw | 0:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Dec 2024 | Casa Pia Win | 3:1 | Primeira Liga |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Casa Pia Win | 1:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Casa Pia Win | 0:1 | Primeira Liga |
Casa Pia - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Nacional | 0:0 | D |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Porto | 2:1 | W |
| 23 Jan 2026 | AVS | 3:3 | D |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Sp Lisbon | 3:0 | L |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | 3:1 | L |
Arouca - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Guimaraes | 3:2 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | 0:3 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Sp Lisbon | 1:2 | L |
| 17 Jan 2026 | AVS | 0:1 | W |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Tondela | 3:1 | L |