Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto wins |
77%
±8%
|
1.23 | -5.5% |
| Draw |
16%
±4%
|
5.75 | -9.1% |
| Arouca wins |
7%
±4%
|
11.75 | -13.1% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Porto
Arouca
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Porto
Arouca
Shots
15.5
8.0
Shots On Target
5.3
2.0
Corners
5.5
2.9
Fouls
12.5
14.0
Yellow Cards
2.5
2.9
Red Cards
0.2
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Porto Wins
8Draws
1Arouca Wins
1| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | Porto Win | 3:1 | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Sep 2025 | Porto Win | 0:4 | Primeira Liga |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Porto Win | 0:2 | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Porto Win | 4:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Feb 2024 | Arouca Win | 3:2 | Primeira Liga |
Porto - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | Rio Ave | - | - |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Alverca | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Santa Clara | 1:0 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | AVS | 3:1 | L |
| 2 May 2026 | Alverca | 1:0 | W |
Arouca - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | Moreirense | - | - |
| 8 Aug 2026 | Guimaraes | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Tondela | 3:1 | W |
| 11 May 2026 | Gil Vicente | 1:3 | W |
| 2 May 2026 | Santa Clara | 2:2 | D |