Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional wins Top Bet |
51%
±11%
|
2.28 | +16.3% |
| Draw |
26%
±3%
|
3.30 | -12.8% |
| Estrela wins |
22%
±8%
|
3.05 | -31.6% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Nacional
Estrela
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Nacional
Estrela
Shots
16.0
14.0
Shots On Target
4.0
3.0
Corners
5.0
6.0
Fouls
13.7
10.0
Yellow Cards
3.0
2.3
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Nacional Wins
1Draws
1Estrela Wins
2| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Nacional Win | 2:0 | Primeira Liga |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Draw | 1:1 | Primeira Liga |
| 6 Apr 2025 | Estrela Win | 0:1 | Primeira Liga |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Estrela Win | 2:0 | Primeira Liga |
Nacional - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2026 | Guimaraes | - | - |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Estoril | - | - |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Santa Clara | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Guimaraes | 2:0 | W |
| 11 May 2026 | Santa Clara | 2:0 | L |
Estrela - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | Alverca | - | - |
| 8 Aug 2026 | Sp Lisbon | - | - |
| 16 May 2026 | Sp Braga | 2:2 | D |
| 11 May 2026 | Famalicao | 0:0 | D |
| 2 May 2026 | Moreirense | 3:2 | L |