Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| France wins |
77%
±19%
|
1.41 | +7.8% |
| Draw |
15%
±8%
|
4.95 | -25.6% |
| Italy wins |
8%
±10%
|
6.43 | -46.7% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
France
Italy
Head-to-Head History
France Wins
3Draws
1Italy Wins
1| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jun 2018 | France Win | 3:1 | UEFA Nations League |
| 1 Sep 2016 | France Win | 1:3 | UEFA Nations League |
| 14 Nov 2012 | France Win | 1:2 | UEFA Nations League |
| 17 Jun 2008 | Italy Win | 0:2 | UEFA Nations League |
| 8 Sep 2007 | Draw | 0:0 | UEFA Nations League |
France - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026 | Belgium | 0:1 | W |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Turkey | - | - |
| 18 Jul 2026 | England | 4:6 | L |
| 14 Jul 2026 | Spain | 0:2 | L |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Morocco | 2:0 | W |
Italy - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026 | Turkey | 1:4 | W |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Belgium | - | - |
| 29 Jun 2024 | Switzerland | 2:0 | L |
| 24 Jun 2024 | Croatia | 1:1 | D |
| 20 Jun 2024 | Spain | 1:0 | L |