Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins Top Bet |
66%
±9%
|
1.31 | -13.5% |
| Draw |
21%
±4%
|
4.96 | +1.9% |
| Excelsior wins |
13%
±6%
|
6.90 | -7.1% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Ajax
Excelsior
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Ajax
Excelsior
Shots
15.8
10.0
Shots On Target
8.3
3.5
Corners
7.3
3.5
Fouls
5.3
10.0
Yellow Cards
0.8
0.8
Red Cards
0.2
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Ajax Wins
2Draws
3Excelsior Wins
1| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Draw | 2:2 | Eredivisie |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Excelsior Win | 1:2 | Eredivisie |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Draw | 2:2 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Draw | 2:2 | Eredivisie |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Ajax Win | 1:4 | Eredivisie |
Ajax - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | Willem II | - | - |
| 12 Sep 2026 | For Sittard | - | - |
| 5 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven | - | - |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Telstar | - | - |
| 30 Aug 2026 | SC Telstar | 0:4 | W |
Excelsior - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Utrecht | - | - |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Nijmegen | 2:2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Willem II | - | - |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam | - | - |
| 15 Aug 2026 | PSV Eindhoven | - | - |