Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins |
68.77%
±12.19%
|
1.30 | -10.7% |
| Draw |
20.1%
±5.35%
|
5.85 | +17.5% |
| Nijmegen wins Top Bet |
11.12%
±6.96%
|
7.89 | -12.2% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Ajax
Nijmegen
Recent Form Statistics
Average per-match stats from each team's recent matches before kickoff.
Stat
Ajax
Nijmegen
Shots
23.4
17.2
Shots On Target
7.6
4.9
Corners
7.3
6.0
Fouls
8.7
11.3
Yellow Cards
2.0
1.4
Red Cards
0.0
0.0
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Ajax
Nijmegen
Shots
16.4
11.4
Shots On Target
6.8
4.6
Corners
6.6
3.2
Fouls
10.4
10.8
Yellow Cards
1.8
1.2
Red Cards
0.0
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Ajax Wins
5Draws
4Nijmegen Wins
1| Date | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Draw | 1:1 |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Draw | 2:2 |
| 11 May 2025 | Nijmegen Win | 0:3 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Ajax Win | 1:2 |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Draw | 2:2 |
Ajax - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Excelsior | 2:2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Willem II | 5:1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | For Sittard | 1:5 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven | 1:3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Telstar | 0:4 | W |
Nijmegen - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1:1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cambuur | 3:0 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Excelsior | 2:2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Feyenoord | 1:3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Zwolle | 1:3 | W |