Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins |
58%
±11%
|
1.78 | +2.3% |
| Excelsior wins |
19%
±9%
|
4.10 | -23.4% |
| Draw |
24%
±3%
|
3.95 | -6.4% |
Model Rating
AI model rating per team before kickoff
Excelsior
Ajax
Season Statistics
Average per-game stats from prior matches this season.
Stat
Excelsior
Ajax
Shots
12.4
14.7
Shots On Target
4.2
5.9
Corners
4.1
4.8
Fouls
12.3
10.0
Yellow Cards
1.2
1.7
Red Cards
0.1
0.1
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side for that metric.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Average per-match stats from recent meetings.
Stat
Excelsior
Ajax
Shots
9.8
17.2
Shots On Target
3.2
9.4
Corners
3.4
8.6
Fouls
9.6
5.4
Yellow Cards
0.8
1.0
Red Cards
0.0
0.2
Highlighted values indicate the stronger side in recent meetings.
Head-to-Head History
Excelsior Wins
1Draws
2Ajax Wins
2| Date | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | Excelsior Win | 1:2 | Eredivisie |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Draw | 2:2 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Draw | 2:2 | Eredivisie |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Ajax Win | 1:4 | Eredivisie |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Ajax Win | 7:1 | Eredivisie |
Excelsior - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Twente | 0:0 | D |
| 21 Jan 2026 | AZ Alkmaar | 1:1 | D |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 2:2 | D |
| 10 Jan 2026 | PSV Eindhoven | 5:1 | L |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Zwolle | 2:1 | W |
Ajax - Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Volendam | 2:0 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles | 2:2 | D |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 2:3 | W |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Nijmegen | 2:2 | D |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Feyenoord | 2:0 | W |